Poker Breakdown: When Should Vanessa Selbst Raise?

Poker Breakdown: When Should Vanessa Selbst Raise?

Vanessa has a big hand on High Stakes Poker against Doyle Brunson. The question is, when should she pull the trigger? Grant and Jonathan break it down.

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Poker Breakdown: When Should Vanessa Selbst Raise?

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32,096 thoughts on “Poker Breakdown: When Should Vanessa Selbst Raise?”

  1. I think she played it right. She got an extra 4k on the turn by calling instead of raising. Doyle may or may not fold the turn if she raises. She got 15k on the river by letting Doyle bet, whereas a raise on the turn would have caused Doyle to check-fold the river.

    But most importantly, I think she was setting the trap to three bet the turn if any of the three players behind felt like they could raise and get Doyle's 4k and Vanessa's 4k and get them both to fold. Certainly if any of the three players behind her had a six, I would expect them to raise instead of call, which lets her take advantage of her reputation by three betting. They also might be tempted to do it with a club draw, or even just with a pure bluff, thinking that Doyle was just trying to steal and Vanessa was just trying to float.

    I don't know why you think that she should have raised the turn, but you don't think that there's much chance that any of the three players behind her would raise. Once she calls the turn, is it really that bad of a move for any of the three behind her to raise? Does her calling really look that strong? Especially with her reputation for floating?

  2. If she raised on the turn, she wouldn't get the 4K call from Stein, nor the 15k bet from Doyle. Imagine she raised to 9k on the turn. Doyle would put in another 5, and maybe check instead of leading out on the river.

    Also, the point is made below that with a K and Q on board, the ONLY kicker to worry about is A6. She got the most out of this situation. I think her check on the flop was the only mistake in this hand, and for some reason you decline to talk about all the flop checks.

  3. Doyle's fold is based on the fact that he loses or chops against any other 6, so his pot odds are effectively divided in half.

  4. Not that it really matters, but J6 is not the "next best 6" because KQ is on the board and the jack doesn't play. Brunson's hand is already the hand that's one pip worse than Vanessa's.

    The question is whether Brunson folds with the same hand, but I basically agree with your analysis that a turn bet is better.

  5. Two honest questions:
    1) Could Vanessa have been less worried about a club draw on the turn because she was holding Ac?
    2) From what I understand, you guys are saying she shouldn't have raised the river. Should she just have called then?

  6. one thing to point out on the river: the kicker of most 6’s wouldn’t matter as there’s a K and a Q on the board. It would’ve been cool to see if Vanessa would raise just 6x to fold out potential chops from Doyle or Klein.

  7. I think you are being a little harsh on vanessa here. She is a world class exploitative player and if anyone is floating turn with a wide array of draws in order to over-bluff this river spot than its vanessa. Her ability to recognise when players are going to be over-folding in spots like these is incredible. vanessa can have top 2 pair, 53,75, and club combos all as bluffs here which also means she should be raising thinner for value and A6 becomes a clear raise. I think you guys got caught up too much in theory land when in reality vanessa will be playing this spot very exploitatively which will be generating more EV in the long run against Doyle imo. #FGTO

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